SOUTH WEST IS THE BATTLEGROUND FOR THE 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (OGUN)
Written by Suleiman A Gamawa
No doubt Jonathan can boast a formidable support base in the South-South region, where he hails from, and the parts of the South-East, Buhari will surely enjoy a huge followership in the North. Getting majority votes in their respective comfort zones may not be a tough row to hoe for the two candidates though, but to win the race would require them winning majority of the votes in the South-West(Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo ) is generally seen as the main battleground for the 2015 presidential election.
The two powerful presidential contenders President Jonathan and former head of State Gen. Buhari would obviously save the best of their outing campaigns in the South-West,part of the country where the February election would be won and lost.
We need to looks at the constituents in South west region to determine how the votes would be cast in these states.
(2011 South-West data by INEC)
1. EKITI.............750,753. Voters
2. LAGOS..........6,247,845. Voters
3. OGUN...........1,869,326. Voters
4. ONDO...........1,558,975. Voters
5. OSUN............1,293,967. Voters
6. OYO..............2,577,490. Voters
TOTAL: .......... 14,298,356. Voters
3. OGUN STATE: A state in south-western Nigeria Created in 1976, with the population of 2.3 million People and most of hem are Yoruba. The state have 20 Local Government and Abeokuta is the capital and largest city in the state. The state Nickname is "Gateway to Nigeria" the state have more famous people than any other state in Nigeria. Such as:
( Awolowo, MKO Abiola, Mike Adenuga, Obasanjo, Soyinka, Fela Kuti, Shonekan, Oladipo Diya, Funmilayo R-Kuti, Ola Rotimi, Tunde Bakare, Bankole etc.. )
The present Governor. Sen Ibikunle Amosun was elected Senator for Ogun Central district in 2003. In April 2007 he made an unsuccessful bid to be elected governor of Ogun State. He ran for Governor again on 2011, and Win in Action Congress of Nigeria that marge to form APC.
Elder Joju Fadairo, is a former PDP chairman party in Ogun state and also among the committee members selected for the national campaign of the President Jonathan for the 2015 general Election. He told the Press that the party (PDP) has a good chance:
“I am confident that Mr. President will get the required 25 per cent votes. We have done a lot and with the transformation agenda being felt in the state, I am sure of these votes.”
Chief Bode Mustapha A former national auditor of the Ruling party PDP, also said:
" it was only in the imagination of the Jonathan supporters that such a feat could be achieved. Where are they going to get that? (25 percent) Well, let us wait and see. The Buhari-change syndrome is spreading to every nook and cranny of the state. The achievements of the incumbent governor here shall complement the votes for Buhari here. It is going to be maximum votes here,”
Mustapha assured the former PDP top notch, who is now heading the campaign team for Sen. Ibikunle Amosun for second time “with the responsibility at my shoulder now, I am going to contest for every vote in Ogun State. I will personally go to all those that matter, particularly those still in the cloud, to convince them why APC should get the power at the centre and retain same in Ogun state.
Mustapha also said:
“Let them come and campaign and tell us why we should have them back in Abuja again"
“Our people are wise now. Buhari is the candidate to beat in Ogun State and February 14 is just days away, we shall see,”
However, observers are of the opinion that with myriads of challenges facing the two major parties, (APC and PDP) the other parties may perhaps capitalize on the situation to direct their followers to go for either Jonathan or Buhari. Such parties include the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Labour Party (LP) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), among others.
Feelers hinted that the SDP, with former Governor Chief Olusegun Osoba in control, may go for Jonathan. This is because of the issues he had with the leadership of his former APC and Amosun, which led to his defection and that of his followers to SDP last month.
Also, with the apparent romance between the leader of the UPN, Dr. Fredrick Faseun, and the presidency, sympathy votes could swing in the direction of Jonathan. More so, the two parties have no presidential candidates.
In the contrary, the recent fallout of the primaries in the PDP may be a major albatross, which could nail the party in the state. Findings revealed that aggrieved members, which include the former Speaker of the House of Representatives Dimeji Bankole, former Minister of Finance Jubril Martins Kuye and former Deputy governor Alh Rafiu Ogunleye are spoiling for a fight with the Buruji Kashamu group, whose faction produced almost 90 per cent of the candidates for the general elections.
As at Thursday, it was gathered that Amosun had reached out to the JMK group to seek his support for his second term run. A fallout of the meeting indicated that JMK followers are well disposed to going with APC. Also, father of the former speaker, Chief Alani Bankole, not satisfied with the manner the national body handled his son’s governorship ambition, which produced Gboyega Isiaka, may have sent a signal to Buhari to assure him of his tacit support.
These developments notwithstanding, the electorate strongly hold that it is time for change, after what they described as over 10 years of waiting on promises, in which Jonathan himself had spent six years. “We are ready to show that we cannot continue to wait for promises that never come. See, we are ready for the change,” Elder Olaniyan a community leader in Odeda local government said.
Olaniyan, a retired public servant, stressed that: “I have been monitoring the campaign and it is getting interesting. With the person seeking return dwelling much on sentiments rather than issues. We shall mobilize to vote out PDP come February 14 and we shall equally stand by our votes to ensure that they count,” he said.
Ogun State ruling Party APC contended that it is impossible or Herculean task for Jonathan to win the state.
OGUN...........1,869,326. Voters
who will win this votes APC or PDP ?
Article by Suleiman A Gamawa
To read Part 2 click here: http://suleimanmd.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-battleground-for-hope-part-2-lagos.html?m=1
To read Part 1 click here: http://suleimanmd.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-battleground-for-hope-part-1-ekiti.html?m=1
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